{"id":423,"date":"2024-12-19T12:00:01","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T04:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/iking.iblogger.org\/?p=423"},"modified":"2024-12-19T12:00:01","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T04:00:01","slug":"%e6%b7%b1%e5%a4%9c%e9%87%8d%e7%a3%85%ef%bc%81%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af25%e4%b8%aa%e5%9f%ba%e7%82%b9-%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e7%9e%ac%e9%97%b4%e9%a3%99%e5%8d%87%ef%bc%81%e6%9c%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/iking.eu.org\/?p=423","title":{"rendered":"\u6df1\u591c\u91cd\u78c5\uff01\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9 \u7f8e\u5143\u77ac\u95f4\u98d9\u5347\uff01\u6700\u65b0\u89e3\u8bfb\u6765\u4e86"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8FOMC\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u5c06\u4e00\u7ea7\u4fe1\u8d37\u5229\u7387\u75314.75%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f34.50%\uff0c\u5c06\u9694\u591c\u9006\u56de\u8d2d\u5229\u7387\u4ece4.55%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f34.25%\uff0c\u5c06\u8d34\u73b0\u5229\u7387\u4ece4.75%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f34.50%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u8868\u793a\uff0cFOMC\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u5173\u4e8e\u8c03\u6574\u5229\u7387\u201c\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u65f6\u673a\u201d\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u6216\u63a5\u8fd1\u653e\u7f13\u964d\u606f\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u3002\u964d\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u653e\u7f13\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u8d70\u9ad8\uff1b\u660e\u5e74\u964d\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u653e\u7f13\u53cd\u6620\u901a\u80c0\u9884\u671f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u5c06\u6839\u636e\u6570\u636e\u505a\u51fa\u964d\u606f\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8FOMC\u58f0\u660e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u514b\u5229\u592b\u5170\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u54c8\u9a6c\u514b\u5bf9\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\u8868\u793a\u53cd\u5bf9\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u4e0d\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e3a\u4f55\u964d\u606f\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u8bae\u606f\u4f1a\u540e\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u516c\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u6307\u6807\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ee5\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u666e\u904d\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6709\u6240\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u5904\u4e8e\u4f4e\u4f4d\u3002\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u5728\u5b9e\u73b0\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a2%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u5c45\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5bfb\u6c42\u5728\u957f\u671f\u5185\u4ee52%\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u5b9e\u73b0\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u548c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u8be5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u5176\u5c31\u4e1a\u548c\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5927\u81f4\u5904\u4e8e\u5e73\u8861\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u5176\u53cc\u91cd\u4efb\u52a1\u5bf9\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd11\u6708CPI\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6da82.7%\uff0c\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a82%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u524d\u503c\u4e3a2.6%\uff0c\u7ef4\u6301\u4e86\u4e0a\u6708\u53cd\u5f39\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1b\u7f8e\u56fd11\u6708\u6838\u5fc3CPI\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6da83.3%\uff0c\u4e0e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u524d\u503c\u4e3a3.3%\u3002\u800c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u66f4\u52a0\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570PCE\u5c06\u5728\u5468\u4e94\u516c\u5e03\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c11\u6708\u4efd\u7f8e\u56fd\u6838\u5fc3PCE\u73af\u6bd4\u5c06\u4e0a\u6da80.2%\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u589e\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\u77ac\u95f4\u98d9\u5347<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5ba3\u5e03\u964d\u606f\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u76f4\u7ebf\u51b2\u9ad8\uff0c\u79bb\u5cb8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u8dcc\u81f31\u7f8e\u5143\u51517.3196\u5143\uff0c\u521b2023\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e09\u5927\u80a1\u6307\u77ed\u7ebf\u4e0b\u632b\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u91cf\u5b50\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1Quantum Computing\u5219\u6301\u7eed\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6da8\u8d8540%\u3002\u8be5\u80a1\u81ea11\u670813\u65e5\u5e73\u5730\u8d77\u98de\uff0c\u622a\u81f312\u670817\u65e5\uff0c\u6da8\u5e45\u8d8510\u500d\u300211\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u540c\u4e3a\u91cf\u5b50\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\u7684DWave Quantum\u6da8\u5e45\u8fbe8\u500d\uff1bRigetti Computing\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u4e5f\u4e0a\u6da810\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u672c\u7530\u5408\u5e76\uff0c\u65e5\u4ea7<\/a><\/span>(5.98<\/span>,\u00a00.88<\/span>,\u00a017.14%<\/span>)<\/span>\u6c7d\u8f66<\/span>\uff08ADR\uff09\u65e5\u5185\u6da8\u5e45\u4e00\u5ea6\u6269\u5927\u81f320%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u521b26\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u5927\u6da8\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73b0\u8d27\u9ec4\u91d1\u3001\u767d\u94f6\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u632b\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u7f8e\u56fd2\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u77ed\u7ebf\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c10\u5e74\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u77ed\u7ebf\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u6b27\u6d32\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u80a1\u6307\u591a\u6570\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672a\u6765\u964d\u606f\u66f4\u8c28\u614e\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672c\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u6599\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u964d\u606f\u6b21\u6570\u6210\u4e3a\u5173\u6ce8\u7126\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u663e\u793a\uff0c2025\u5e74\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u964d\u606f\u4e24\u6b21\uff0c\u800c9\u6708\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3a\u56db\u6b21\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u9e70\u6d3e\u964d\u606f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u8003\u8651\u5bf9\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u8fdb\u884c\u989d\u5916\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u65f6\uff0c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5c06\u4ed4\u7ec6\u8bc4\u4f30\u6700\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u3001\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4ee5\u53ca\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n

\u636e\u8d22\u8054\u793e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u201c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f20\u58f0\u7b52\u201dNick Timiraos\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u653f\u7b56\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u201c\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u201d\u8fd9\u4e00\u63aa\u8f9e\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u5c06\u653e\u7f13\u964d\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fee\u6539\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u5730\u65f6\u95f412\u670818\u65e5\uff0c\u829d\u5546\u6240\u7684\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u89c2\u5bdf\u5de5\u5177\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u57281\u6708\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u81f34.00%\u20144.25%\u7684\u6982\u7387\u53ea\u670916.3%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u5728\u660e\u5e741\u6708\u6682\u505c\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u3002<\/p>\n

\u636e\u8bc1\u5238\u65f6\u62a5\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u770b\u5230\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660e\u901a\u80c0\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u5584\u6216\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u964d\u4f4e\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u3002\u514b\u5229\u592b\u5170\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u54c8\u9a6c\u514b\uff08Beth Hammack\uff09\u672c\u6708\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5230\u8fbe\u6216\u63a5\u8fd1\u5e94\u8be5\u653e\u6162\u964d\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u7684\u8282\u70b9\u3002\u201d\u5979\u8d5e\u8d4f\u5730\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa90\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u4e24\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fc5\u901f\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u964d\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e3a0.75\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8f6c\u4e3a\u89c2\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u76db<\/a><\/span>(550.25<\/span>,\u00a0-24.43<\/span>,\u00a0-4.25%<\/span>)<\/span>\u9996\u5e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Jan Hatzius\u5728\u5176\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u653e\u6162\u964d\u606f\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8fd8\u5220\u9664\u4e86\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u660e\u5e741\u6708\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u660e\u5e74\u4f1a\u57283\u6708\u30016\u6708\u548c9\u6708\u5408\u8ba1\u964d\u606f\u4e09\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7403\u5bbd\u677e\u5927\u6f6e\u5e2d\u5377\u800c\u6765<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5ba3\u5e03\u964d\u606f\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u592e\u884c\u4e0b\u8c03\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u738730\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

12\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u5df2\u6709\u591a\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5ba3\u5e03\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u5730\u65f6\u95f412\u670811\u65e5\uff0c\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8c03\u4e8650\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

12\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u964d\u606f25\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6b27\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

12\u670812\u65e5\u745e\u58eb\u592e\u884c\u610f\u5916\u5ba3\u5e03\u964d\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f30.5%\uff0c\u8ddd\u79bb\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u53ea\u526950\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f2015\u5e741\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u745e\u58eb\u592e\u884c\u6700\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

12\u670816\u65e5\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u592e\u884c\u5ba3\u5e03\u964d\u606f200\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u81f313%\u3002<\/p>\n

12\u670817\u65e5\uff0c\u6469\u6d1b\u54e5\u592e\u884c\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c06\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u4ece2.75%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f32.5%\u3002<\/p>\n

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